Beneficios y costos económicos de las medidas de mitigación por el covid-19 en México

In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the scenario of social distance and restricted economic activity implemented during the first months after the beginning of the epidemic, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. I estimate that so...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Rojas Valdés, Rubén Irvin
Formato: Online
Idioma:inglês
Editor: El Colegio de México, A.C. 2021
Assuntos:
Acesso em linha:https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/415
Recursos:

Estudios Económicos

Descrição
Resumo:In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the scenario of social distance and restricted economic activity implemented during the first months after the beginning of the epidemic, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. I estimate that social distance policies reduce the number of COVID-19 cases by 33%, saving over 292,000 lives. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 526 billion USD. Under a plausible economic recovery trajectory, I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap is equal to 35% of Mexico’s 2019 GDP.