Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4
By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (λ=1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) t...
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Online |
| Idioma: | espanhol |
| Editor: |
El Colegio de México, A.C.
2014
|
| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/71 |
| Recursos: |
Estudios Económicos |
| Resumo: | By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (λ=1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) their duration is of about 15-22 quarters, c) their amplitude regarding the potential output varies between 4.46% and -6.48%, d) the expansionary phases never have been above the former data, thus it can be considered as an alarm signal of the end of a cycle, and e) by 2013.4 the Mexican economy was 2.5% below. |
|---|