Evaluación de diferentes métodos para la estimación del PIB potencial: el caso de México

With the purpose of contributing to the literature that focuses on the estimation of Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this study evaluates four different estimation methods of Potential GDP using quarterly data from Mexico for the period 1998:Q1-2020:Q2. The procedures used for its estimation...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Corona, Francisco, Orraca, Pedro, López-Pérez, Jesús
Format: Online
Language:Spanish
Editor: El Colegio de México, A.C. 2022
Subjects:
PIB potencial
Modelo de Factores Dinámicos
métodos heurísticos
descomposición PT
filtro HP
E32
C52
C38
potential GDP
Dynamic Factor Models
heuristic methods
PT decomposition
HP Filter
Online Access:https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/432
Journal:

Estudios Económicos

Description
Summary:With the purpose of contributing to the literature that focuses on the estimation of Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this study evaluates four different estimation methods of Potential GDP using quarterly data from Mexico for the period 1998:Q1-2020:Q2. The procedures used for its estimation are: 1) Heuristic methods, 2) The Hodrick Prescott filter, 3) Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model, and 4) The Permanent-Transient (PT) decomposition of Gonzalo and Granger (1995). We conclude that, econometrically, the best results are obtained when using the PT decomposition.

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