Análisis de los supuestos sobre la migración internacional en las proyecciones de población de México 2001-2050 y 2006-2050
Several prospective exercises consider that the projection of migration is linked to the presumption of success in various specific economic goals. This paper therefore analyzes the projection assumptions referring to this demographic component by linking them to the theoretical framework and the po...
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| Format: | Online |
| Langue: | espagnol |
| Éditeur: |
El Colegio de México A.C.
2014
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| Accès en ligne: | https://estudiosdemograficosyurbanos.colmex.mx/index.php/edu/article/view/1461 |
| Institution: |
Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos |
| Résumé: | Several prospective exercises consider that the projection of migration is linked to the presumption of success in various specific economic goals. This paper therefore analyzes the projection assumptions referring to this demographic component by linking them to the theoretical framework and the political-economic context. It analyzes the sources quoted in the methodological document and the literature related. Some of the findings indicate that the prospective exercises examined assume sustained growth of 5% during the first decade of the 21st century, whereby net migration would grow at a constantannual rate of nearly 0.22. This assumption is directly linked to the expectations of thepolitical and economic situations of the first two Mexican governments in the 21stcentury and to the economic growth achieved during the last five years of the 20th century.In order to increase the reliability of its results, the use of stochastic techniques isproposed to accurately measure the uncertainty associated with migration and therebyincrease the objectivity of its projection. |
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