| Résumé: | According to the United Nations, Brazil is among those countries with "intermediate" levels of fertility; i.e., those countries with current total fertility rates above replacement and below five children per woman. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the UN conference on intermediate level fertility countries and sought to bring together literature on Brazilian fertility decline with the opinions of several leading Brazilian demographers about its future. I asked these Brazilian specialists several questions including: 1) Will Brazilian fertility rates follow the trends of so-called developed countries, i.e. reach below replacement levels? Or will Brazilian fertility rates stabilize at a level about replacement levels? 2) What is your opinion of Brazilian fertility behavior in the next 50 years? 3) What is your estimate of the average fertility rate in the following periods: 2000-2005, 2005-2025, 2025-2050? 4) Why do you think these will be the average expected fertility behaviors in each of the periods? 5) In your opinion what are the factors or lead indicators that might be especially relevant and useful for formulating plausible assumptions on future fertility in Brazil?Based on the literature review and the responses of Brazilian demographers, I examine the prospects for continuing declines in fertility and the forces that are likely to shape future fertility trends. I also consider the reasonableness and soundness of the assumptions about future fertility that the United Nations uses to estimate projections for Brazil. I then discuss what we know about trends and socioeconomic differentials in Brazilian fertility, the evolution of its proximate determinants and how these affect the assumptions being made by the UN regarding future fertility trends. I also present the best guesses of Brazilian demographers about Brazil's population future in the coming decades. Finally, I speculate about the forces that will shape Brazilian fertility in the future, by emphasizing the role of its demographic legacy and current behavior, the current sterilization law and public policies and the role of gender relations and public suppor.
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